Why Analysts Misjudge Wave of Industrial Digitization
Another embarrassing analyst misjudgment report has been released.
When the communication industry faces significant changes, well-known analytical firms always make laughable and erroneous predictions – which almost become industry benchmarks. In January of this year, Gartner’s “Magic Quadrant for 4G/5G Dedicated Mobile Network Services” made a joke; this month, Deloitte’s latest telecommunications industry forecast report also wore a “shame hat”.
Deloitte said: “It is difficult for telecom companies to find large-scale application scenarios that need 5G high-speed features, because applications such as autonomous vehicle, AR/VR glasses and remote surgery will not be popularized until around 2030 at least.”
Friends, this is simply an analytical error at the level of the Enron scandal.
Deloitte’s example of 5G applications exposes its cognitive limitations – the concepts of autonomous driving, VR, and remote surgery were born in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1990s, respectively. Nowadays, the most revolutionary applications of 5G are being implemented in heavy industries such as mining, railways, ports, and utilities. As a cloud native network infrastructure, it supports digital transformation based on AI, automation, predictive analytics, and robotics.
Governments around the world are accelerating the implementation of Industry 4.0 policies, with the exception of the United States – the only developed country without a national digital strategy (similar to its refusal to control guns, universal healthcare, and metric units), which places its hopes on tech giants. This misjudgment will lead to the United States losing its global economic dominance by the mid-20th century (remember this turning point when you shed tears over the shrinking 401K pension in 2050).
Island dilemma
The root cause of Deloitte’s mistakes with the United States lies in its “closed mindedness”. The report author team (three Americans, one Canadian and one Indian) was apparently unaware that the global communications industry was undergoing the most significant transformation in history. Industrial digitization is like the transformative surgery of Mr. Six Million, reshaping the global economy with Industry 4.0 technology and creating a new era of efficiency and sustainability.
Insiders from Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, and ZTE have seized this’ unimaginably vast ‘opportunity. A few operators, such as T-Mobile and China Mobile, are building infrastructure to support the new industrial ecosystem, rather than just being data pipeline providers.
Life and death speed of operators
US operators could have entered Industry 4.0 by issuing enterprise 5G private network licenses, and then provided OT system and 5G network integration services. However, misleading recommendations from institutions such as Deloitte and Gartner that limit 5G to consumer technology are always regarded as the norm.
Stefan Pongranz from Dell’Oro Group said, “5G has covered more than half of the world’s population, and operators can temporarily postpone investing in improving capital intensity. This is tantamount to suggesting that operators accelerate bankruptcy. In fact, the way to survive lies in fully embracing the opportunities of Industry 4.0.
It is ironic that analysts who claim to have insight into technological change are missing out on the most important technological revolution in history due to departmental barriers (a chronic disease they once advised clients to eliminate). What’s even more serious is that the combination of garbage analysis reports and almost paranoid arrogance has made the United States completely unaware of the technological revolution around it.