Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market Stabilizing, with CAGR of Approximately 1% over the Next Five Years

According to a latest forecast report released by Dell’Oro Group, the wireless access network market has now stabilized after experiencing a sharp decline in 2023 and 2024 following the 5G peak. In the absence of any significant growth catalyst, demand for RAN is expected to remain weak in the short term until 6G capital expenditures begin to increase.

Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN Market Research at Dell’Oro Group, said, “The past few years have been extremely challenging, with global RAN revenue decreasing by nearly $10 billion. Although there are still two-way risks in the market, and due to the slowdown in data traffic growth, the risk may still lean towards the downside, the optimistic sentiment surrounding 6G can be seen as a positive signal, supporting the assumption that 6G may bring substantial revenue by 2030.”

Long term market outlook and recent trends

The long-term market positioning has not changed. Over time, RAN is not a growth market (with a compound annual growth rate of 0% between 2000 and 2025). However, as operators match their investment needs with the availability and capacity requirements of new spectrum/technology, the market will experience periods of varying levels of capital intensity. The benchmark forecast shows that RAN and capital expenditure trends will remain stable, leading to further improvement in capital intensity before the start of 6G investment at the end of the forecast period.

It is expected that global RAN revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1% over the next five years, with rapidly declining LTE revenue offsetting ongoing 5G and initial 6G investments.

Based on the growth of mobile data traffic, timing of capacity investment, and attention to network differentiation, the market may experience more optimistic or pessimistic outcomes.

During the forecast period, the proportion of RAN to wireless capital expenditure is expected to average between 20% and 25%.